“Apple employees oppose return-to-office.”
“I only work half days at home, why go into the office?”
“I’m not going to give up the freedom of working from home!”
“Help Wanted!”
These are all recent headlines that illustrate current trends in the labor market. The headlines result from the recent pandemic, which I will classify as a “Gray Swan” event, defined as possible and potentially highly significant but considered unlikely to happen. We knew that a pandemic was possible and that it could be an important event (reference the Bubonic plague from the Medieval period) but that it was not very likely to happen. Who would have thought that a virus in the modern age could shut the world down?
Along with a Gray Swan event comes economic upheaval. But what typically follows economic unrest? Societal upheaval and changes—some temporary, some permanent. The headlines represent the canary in the coal mine for the print industry. I just returned from a peer group meeting, and all attending companies were wrestling with the same labor issues and searching for solutions. They were also grappling with the lower revenue associated with lower print volumes that resulted from the headlines.
These issues brought to the foreground of my thinking how a labor shortage from the early 1970s affected my grandfather’s farm operations and what he did to mitigate the problem. I also began to think about our industry’s significant revenue and profit opportunities over the next several years. But first, here is some background on my grandfather’s problem and solution.
Labor Challenge
The coming of late summer and fall always brings memories of the harvesting of potatoes on my grandfather’s farm. He typically planted hundreds of acres of potatoes on his 150-year-old farm and rented land around the tiny burg of Felton, Pennsylvania. The potatoes, planted in the spring on the date indicated by the Farmer’s Almanac, were ready to be harvested by late August. During my high school and college years, I typically put in at least two weeks of labor on the farm before starting the new school year.
The potato harvesting technique had not changed much. Farmers first utilized oxen and horses to get the potatoes out of the ground and then gradually transitioned to steam-powered tractors in the late 19th century. But getting the potatoes from the fields to storage had always relied on significant human resources. Through the 1960s, for my grandfather’s operation, the human resources were primarily mothers from the surrounding farms and the town of Felton. My grandfather would provide the harvesting schedule of the many fields to the regular pickers before the season started. Then hopefully, with constant reminding, at least 20 or more people would show up to do the hot, dusty manual labor on the days they were required. It was a continuous guessing game about how many would show up to work and when.
By the early 1970s, the size of the workforce willing to do this kind of labor had shrunk. Many stay-at-home moms who previously were available to work the fields were taking jobs in local businesses. This trend created a crisis for my grandfather. The best option was the mechanization of the harvesting function. And even though he was very wary of debt, especially at age 71, he took out a loan and, in 1972, purchased a mechanized potato harvester. The purchase solved the workforce problem. In contrast to the field hand count of 20-plus pickers, the mechanized picker required a significantly reduced workforce of only eight personnel—six on board and two to drive the tractors. While the mechanized harvester had been available for years, it took these societal changes to force the adoption of the resolution.
Because of the volatile labor market and other societal changes, many companies are searching for more efficient, less labor-intensive, more secure and controllable ways to conduct business, much like my grandfather in 1972 (although that was a much simpler time). They are searching for ways to facilitate the advent of work-from-home and hybrid location staff, along with the inherent logistics difficulties compared to an all-in-house team.
Seize Opportunity
Our industry should stop thinking about “when the print volumes come back” or “when everyone returns to the office.” The Gray Swan event has accelerated the reduction in print volumes over the last two years, and I have read those print volumes may only recover up to 82% of pre-pandemic levels. The only hope for the traditional office equipment business to increase revenues is to play the shell game and take business from the office equipment company down the street. In the short term, that can work, but can it be a successful long-term strategy? Especially as the workplace is filled with ever-younger employees who have never operated in a print-centric work environment.
While print is not dead (far from it), the reduction in revenues needs to be replaced by other products and services. From document management solutions to cloud database management, from managed IT to managed cybersecurity, our industry is in the proverbial catbird seat to provide the answers to help these companies achieve their goals. At the same time, we are helping to ensure the future of our companies and team members.
