Fearless Forecasting: Industry Experts Take a Shot at Predicting 2024 Events

Let’s be honest, Americans love predictions. Some prognosticators come armed with mountains of data to support their assertions. Others rely on a gut reaction, backed by years of experience in going through similar circumstances. Some predictions are just meant to be bold outliers that run opposite of popular opinion, either as an attention-grabber or to establish the naysayer as a free-thinker.

Look how huge legalized sports gambling has become. Armchair quarterbacks believe they know as much, if not more, than the experts and are willing to stake next month’s rent money on a “sure thing.” Cable news networks employ political analysts who make a living interpreting events and decisions in the nation’s capital and making projections based on experience, intuition and knowledge. Pundits are, in the end, just well-dressed handicappers. Then there are the annual awards shows, such as the Oscars, when friends get together and predict who will win best actor, actress, film, cinematographer, key grip—you name it.

OK, so maybe the nation’s addiction to gambling is the real culprit. But it does seem we enjoy being rewarded for being correct, whether because of expertise or just dumb luck. Even broken clocks are right twice a day, and that reality has catapulted more than a few people deep into debt. But that’s a conversation for a different venue.

The acquisition of a strong company with an existing customer base can be a huge lift to a dealer looking for ways to expand.

– Chip Miceli, Pulse Technology

Each year, ENX Magazine—like many publications—asks members of the office technology community to predict what the New Year will hold. Some projections are bold, others more conservative. As an FYI, we checked back on some of the prognostications that were made in our January 2023 issue, and many were spot on with their predictions of supply chain backlogs easing, business resumption garnering more momentum, the digital transformation movement growing and managed IT accounting for a larger share of the revenue pie. That said, here are our panelists’ views on what the future—and 2024 in particular—may hold.

Business Boom

While the economy may not benefit from the presidential election year (see our trends story on page 8), and in spite of the ever-declining click counts, Chip Miceli—CEO of Pulse Technology in Schaumburg, Illinois—believes 2024 could be replete with opportunities for the initiated dealers. Some will likely cut bait and seek to sell out, which could provide a vehicle for dealers to scoop them up, adding products and services, not to mention highly sought-after skilled professionals.

“The acquisition of a strong company with an existing customer base can be a huge lift to a dealer looking for ways to expand,” Miceli explained. “Of course, it needs to make sense both geographically and culturally. In our case, we expanded into Wisconsin this past year by opening a new office, but much of our expansion has also been through acquisition. This now gives us a presence in three adjoining states: Indiana, Illinois and Wisconsin. If we were to expand further, we’d most likely look here in the Midwest.”

Miceli is also bullish on AI/ChatGPT being a resource to help dealers gather intelligence regarding a prospective client. “Imagine being armed with extensive background information on a prospect—which any sales executive should do on his/her own anyway—but doing it more quickly and efficiently,” he pointed out. “This will go a long way toward improving a company’s customer relationship management.”

Prosperity is on the minds of many dealers as 2024 bolts out of the chute. Their ability to recognize market opportunities is almost as important as the execution strategy they employ, and some pundits feel not all companies will be poised to capitalize. The question becomes, what will it take to be among those who add to their top-line and bottom-line performance?

“I feel 2024 could be a year when the wheat is separated from the chaff,” noted Erik Crane, president and CEO of CPI Technologies in Springfield, Missouri. “If there is good news from the economy and politics, both U.S. and international, the dealerships that are poised to take advantage of growing consumer confidence will prosper. Fully staffed, aggressive sales teams with proper administration support and a stable of amazing products should be able to make 2024 a banner year.”

Artificial Sweeteners

One of the most popular talking points centered on the impact that AI, in its various forms, can have on the industry beyond predictive maintenance/supplies consumption. Most agree that machine learning and generative capabilities could provide a vehicle for accomplishing more with less, various workflow efficiencies and—perhaps most importantly—the X factor, the unknown functions it could serve in the future.

J. Mark DeNicola, CFO/CSO for Centriworks of Knoxville, Tennessee, believes many so-called experts are actually relying on generative AI to produce articles that are unattributed to sources, thus passing themselves off as experts. Everyone, he said, can appear to be an expert.

Fortunately, he sees more productive/above-board applications for the industry. “AI will become more critical in all aspects of the business,” DeNicola said. “When used correctly, AI can streamline marketing, arm sales reps with more accurate and pertinent information about prospects, allow technicians to evaluate and fix problems faster, etc.”

AI’s impact on technical service can be a major windfall for the industry, given the older demographic of service techs and the extreme difficulties in coaxing the next generation to view mechanical work as a viable vocation. Rob Richardson, president of Allied Document Solutions & Services in Swedesboro, New Jersey, believes technology could provide some relief.

“Look for how AI can facilitate not only preventive solutions from a service perspective but also efficiencies in day-to-day maintenance,” he said.

Striking a balance between diversification opportunities and legacy business will be critical in 2024, notes Steven Sauer, chief revenue officer for Toshiba America Business Solutions. But he also feels AI’s role will continue to grow and take shape.

“In the realm of AI, the industry has only begun to tap into its potential, with expectations of increased momentum in 2024, particularly in intelligent document capture,” he added.

Some feel that the field of manufacturers/vendors serving the industry is suffering from overcrowding. Dan Larkin, solutions sales director for Marco, believes the landscape could tighten via consolidation while others will need to streamline their offerings in order to remain competitive. As manufacturers are confronted with thinner profit margins and inflation continuing to apply downward pressure, Larkin believes customers should brace for higher prices.

Here, too, AI may be a solution. “However, there may be a bit of good news on the horizon,” he said. “AI technology may offer simpler, more cost-effective tools for providers and better management tools for customers.”

Expanded Menus

The industry has long been banging the need-to-diversify drum, and the calls for expanding products and services seem to grow louder each year. Managed services, production print, label printing, VoIP, interactive whiteboards, electric vehicle (EV) charging stations, janitorial/sanitation supplies, furniture—these areas may be the most noteworthy diversification outlets, but they’re by no means the only ones.

Fortunately, financial providers to the industry are well-attuned to this development and have been crafting solutions in support. Mitch Leahy, vice president and managing director of sales for Great America Financial Services, anticipates the number of solutions offered per dealer will continue to grow.

“As solution providers introduce new offerings, billing can become cumbersome,” he said. “Scalable invoicing that simplifies things and delivers on the unique billing requirements of an all-encompassing technology solution will be in high demand. Our own 1nVOICE accommodates a variety of go-to-market strategies while simplifying the payment process for end-customers via a single invoice.”

One catalyst for success is having an open mind regarding new technologies that will enable dealers to keep up with changing market conditions, notes Clark Bugg, director of North America channel sales for Lexmark International. He sees it as a buy-in that requires staying abreast of emerging trends and being willing to make investments in such innovative solutions.

Scalable invoicing that simplifies things and delivers on the unique billing requirements of an all-encompassing technology solution will be in high demand.

– Mitch Leahy, GreatAmerica Financial Services

Dealers and resellers must employ a customer-centric approach, Bugg added, and cultivate industry expertise as a point of market differentiation. “Building strong partnerships with manufacturers and software providers will help dealerships offer targeted solutions that address specific pain points,” he said. “Additionally, prioritizing security and data protection is essential to maintain customer trust and comply with regulations.”

Creativity and a willingness to delve deeper into the workings of your clients’ business are critical in discerning which ancillary offerings would best mesh with their needs. Ray Belanger, president of Bay Copy in Rockland, Massachusetts, believes dealers would benefit most from the guidance of their peers in assessing the ROI versus investment costs.

“I expect the industry peer groups and associations to continue to flourish as new technology is introduced to the industry,” he said. “The ability to learn from each other and share best practices will become increasingly important.”

The ability to learn from each other and share best practices will become increasingly important.

– Ray Belanger, Bay Copy

Manufacturers have been equally vocal in espousing the virtues of product and service diversification. The caveat is a need to thoroughly vet potential additions when crafting a diversification strategy, notes Bob Madaio, vice president of marketing for Sharp Imaging and Information Company of America.

“While this additional vetting may slow down adoption, new business strategies will more likely be successful once dealers dive in,” he said. “Economic and political uncertainty has decreased the risk tolerance for businesses and dealers alike in the marketplace. This uncertainty, however, is balanced against the desire, if not the requirement, to grow and add new solutions to the suite of offerings these providers can recommend to their clients.”

Economic and political uncertainty has decreased the risk tolerance for businesses and dealers alike in the marketplace.

– Bob Madaio, Sharp

In the hybrid era of work, the traditional office still has many of the same elemental needs (collaboration and cybersecurity tools, information access/sharing) it required when team members were all on premises. This entails dealers integrating full-featured equipment with connected workflows and content management, noted Jennifer Healy, senior director, marketing strategy, communications, programs and enablement, dealer and partner channel, Ricoh USA. But there is a noteworthy difference.

“As workspaces downsize due to hybrid environments, print production will be a big opportunity for dealers as companies are outsourcing, resulting in more inkjet presses and digital print production investment,” she said. “Manufacturing partners such as Ricoh will become resources for them as companies latch on to variable, short-run print jobs that meet personalized marketing expectations.”

As workspaces downsize due to hybrid environments, print production will be a big opportunity for dealers as companies are outsourcing, resulting in more inkjet presses and digital print production investment.

– Jennifer Healy, Ricoh

Inconvenient Truths

While we’d love to paint a picture of a future with endless possibilities, there are some significant issues following us into the New Year. Acknowledge and act is perhaps the best strategy in dealing with developments that have the propensity to cause problems in the future. Some solutions entail exercising a degree of patience—you’ll need it.

Growth will be challenging for dealers, according to Sean Bell, president of Solutions YES in Portland, Oregon. He points out that most dealers likely had a 14-month sales year in 2022 or 2023, but will have just 12 selling months in 2024. The level of inflation, he said, has been unprecedented.

“In my time in this business, I’ve never seen inflation like we’ve seen in the last year,” he said. “I think expectations need to change around how we price upgrades as a result of inflation, and I anticipate that will require a technology-oriented sales approach versus the how-do-we-reduce-your-expenses approach that dominated the 2020-2022 COVID years.”

It seems bewildering that despite living in an age when there are more outlets than ever for people to contact one another, they’ve become increasingly more difficult to reach. This is a problem that’s becoming increasingly worse, notes Andrew Ritschel, president of Electronic Office Systems in Fairfield, New Jersey.

“What I see for 2024 is greatly increased difficulty in reaching our suspects, prospects and even clients,” Ritschel added. “Many companies have auto-renewed on their product leases and have proven to be very elusive when we try to reach out with multiple attempts.”

Accepting that every product and service dealers offer will only be purchased online by proactive prospects not only emboldens the Amazons of the world, it curtails product and technology innovation. “Personal relationships and interaction have not become obsolete,” Ritschel added.

The employee shuffle will continue to a certain degree in 2024. Carter Hertzberg, president of Nauticon Office Solutions in Gaithersburg, Maryland, believes companies fall in one of two buckets: job cuts made by struggling companies, and growing firms needing to be creative in retaining and attracting talent. Choice B is the lesser of two evils but still represents an obstacle.

Personal relationships and interaction have not become obsolete.

– Andrew Ritschel, Electronic Office Systems

“Most growing employers will likely not want to hire cast-offs from the declining competitors, and there are few recent college grads pining to get into the print industry,” Hertzberg observed. “The recent legal precedence around non-compete agreements makes for an interesting playing field with respect to talent acquisition.”

Some people, including Karl Boissonneault, leader of Xerox Canada and North America channels, anticipate the cost of capital will remain high. He also believes the industry should expect the labor market to remain tight throughout the year.

“To help address these ongoing issues, clients should take advantage of low-interest and deferred payment plans, when available, and ensure the right mix of products are on hand by tightly managing sales pipelines,” he said. “On the labor front, focus on employee retention by understanding what your staff values beyond compensation and make that a reality.”

On the labor front, focus on employee retention by understanding what your staff values beyond compensation and make that a reality.

– Karl Boissonneault, Xerox

Sweeping Up

The continued transformation of the office dealer landscape will prompt resellers to redefine themselves, seek out methods to evolve and evaluate the partnerships that will best position them for success, notes Elliot Williams, director of product marketing, business imaging, for Epson America.

“With a constant ebb and flow, dealers should stay nimble, flexible and open minded to manage the hurdles of the present and be proactive in finding and creating opportunities for growth and profitability in the future,” he said. “Success in this arena will rely on strong relationships and attentive support from OEM partners. We’ll continue to see dealers focus on the partnerships that have the greatest impact now as well as in the future and provide adjacent avenues to increase profits.”

We’ll continue to see dealers focus on the partnerships that have the greatest impact now as well as in the future and provide adjacent avenues to increase profits.

– Elliot Williams, Epson

Health care is the market to watch in 2024, especially for providers seeking to increase A3 sales, according to Dino Pagliarello, senior vice president, portfolio management and planning, Konica Minolta Business Solutions. He pointed to reports that show the A3 color market for health care is projected to grow 4% or more during the next five years. That would go a long way toward boosting a valued machine segment that’s becoming increasingly marginalized by its A4 counterpart.

“That makes [A3] a shining star as we hear about declines in the office space,” Pagliarello added. “Health care could single-handedly drive growth for the A3 color business in 2024.”

Health care could single-handedly drive growth for the A3 color business in 2024.

– Dino Pagliarello, Konica Minolta Business Solutions

While the M&A landscape seemed to take an unaccustomed back seat to other headline-grabbing developments last year, some observers feel it will continue its upward trend. Frank Cucco, CEO of Impact Networking, suggests that industry consolidation will enable larger dealers to grow their businesses, while the mid-market companies will rely on diversification into managed services to bolster margins and profits.

Patrick Layton, Impact’s vice president of managed IT services and a partner, sees M&A as being healthy for the industry. “The private-equity money will stay in the space, and there will be more roll-ups that contain print and copy dealers,” he said. “We’re confident 2024 will be a positive year for the industry and Impact.”

The private-equity money will stay in the space, and there will be more roll-ups that contain print and copy dealers.

– Patrick Layton, Impact Networking

On the topic of consolidation of a different ilk, fleets will demand optimal management tools as device consolidation becomes the new norm, notes Fernando Maroniene, senior director of product marketing for Brother International. A4 units with high capacity to manage and operate more complex workflows will take precedence over A3. The upshot is the need for increased security measures—password intelligence, locking features based on user, badge authentication—that will be required as distributed workforces continue to proliferate.

“Customers want to ensure their confidential documents can only be accessed by authorized users and that sensitive documents are locked and prevented from being accidentally sent to the wrong location,” Maroniene remarked.

Customers want to ensure their confidential documents can only be accessed by authorized users and that sensitive documents are locked and prevented from being accidentally sent to the wrong location.

– Fernando Maroniene, Brother International

Finally, Jay Cartisano isn’t a fan of making predictions. The president of Cincinnati-based Prosource feels there are too many variables that he can’t control, from manufacturer issues to supply chain snafus and the cost of freight and shipping.

Rather, Cartisano is content to work on his company’s blocking and tackling methods. “I think it’s important to focus on the things that are in your control as an organization and focus on the strategies and tactics that have led your organization to success previously,” he said.

I think it’s important to focus on the things that are in your control as an organization and focus on the strategies and tactics that have led your organization to success previously.

– Jay Cartisano, Prosource